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埃及农业出口影响因素及出口中国市场潜力研究
作 者: Assem Reda Abu Hatab
导 师: 霍学喜
学 校: 西北农林科技大学
专 业: 农业经济管理
关键词: 农业出口 决定因素 引力模型 面板数据 中国 埃及
分类号: F754.11
类 型: 博士论文
年 份: 2011年
下 载: 86次
引 用: 0次
阅 读: 论文下载
内容摘要
本文研究主要涉及两个主题:一是论证埃及农业出口世界市场过程中的需求决定因素。二是探讨埃及农产品出口中国市场的潜力与机遇。文献综述与评价表明,虽然埃及已经完成或正在经历重大改革,但随着埃及农业贸易逆差趋于扩大,1994-2008年间贸易逆差额从22亿美元扩大到2008年的63亿美元,因而埃及农业出口贸易仍是富有争议性的经济学问题。此外,埃及农业出口贸易状况与主要特征表现为:在国际市场中呈现出剧烈波动和不稳定性,而且当埃及主要贸易伙伴国的政治或经济形势发生迅速变化时,高度的贸易地理集中和商品集中导致埃及的出口贸易更易受到进口国市场的需求变化的影响。另一方面,中国在全球经济中具有重要地位,其农业进口需求具有连续性和稳定性,加之受到中国经济持续增长、国民收入提高和城市化快速发展的驱动,通过适当的贸易机制扩大针对中国市场的出口贸易,可实现埃及农业出口贸易的合理的地理替代,并实现埃及农业出口贸易的扩张和多样化。截止目前,尚未发现有关研究埃及与中国间的农业双边贸易,或是探究埃及农产品出口中国市场的潜力与机遇方面的研究文献。针对上述背景,本文旨在评价埃及农业出口世界市场的绩效和竞争力,特别是分析1994-2008年间影响埃及农业出口贸易最相关因素;从探索调整埃及贸易逆差和实现农业贸易平衡角度,探究中国与埃及之间的贸易模式及其驱动力,揭示埃及农产品出口中国市场的潜力与机遇,并在理论方面探索推进两国双边贸易总量扩张的路径。研究结果表明,埃及GDP每增长1%能促使其农业出口增长5.42%;相反,由于经济增长和人口膨胀提高普通商品的人均需求,埃及的人均GDP增长将导致其农产品出口下降,即国内GDP增长本身会导致减少出口。进口国的人均GDP变化对埃及农业出口贸易影响不显著,表明埃及农业出口贸易遵循GDP模式——致力于生产和出口数量型产品,并依赖于总体市场规模,而未遵循人均GDP模式——集中于出口对收入水平敏感的质量型高附加值产品。交易波动率的系数为正且影响显著,说明埃及镑贬值不利于通过其合作国的货币流通及利率传递来激励农业出口。以阿拉伯语为官方语言的国家与埃及农产品出口的增长密切相关;与埃及签订了区域贸易协定(RTA)的成员国对埃及农业出口量变化的影响不显著,意味着埃及从区域贸易协定中获取的贸易利益微弱。通过对埃及29个农业出口公司的出口经理,就其农产品出口交易中的经历和难题进行问卷访谈,并建立了案例研究框架。基于调查结果,研究进一步研究阻碍埃及农业出口的一系列挑战与问题,其中立法和管制制约、体制和信息构架约束、国内生产问题、基础设施约束,是最具挑战性和重要影响的内部问题;而国外市场竞争激烈、市场管制、国际标准、贸易政策方面,是最具挑战性和重要影响的外部问题。通过埃及农业对中国出口市场问题问题研究,结果表明中国对埃及的出口显著多于从埃及的进口,从而使中国获得大量的贸易盈余。然而,两国贸易量仍过小,商品贸易范围相对广泛。研究结果还清晰地显示,两国具有比较优势的产业、产品几乎没有重叠的领域。因此,中国不会在埃及具有比较优势的大多数领域与埃及竞争。该结果表明,埃及的选定商品在中国市场上具有商业机会。埃及对中国的实际农业出口流和预测农业出口流表明,埃及对中国的农业出口实际价值低于预期值,近几年的记录也显示年均出口缺口达到69%。其政策含义是,随着出口扩张潜力的充分挖掘,埃及政府应该采取正确的措施增加对中国的农产品出口量,即埃及仍应挖掘更多的机会向中国出口更多的农产品。此外,已有的实践和研究发现证明,自由贸易协定(FTAs)促进了合作者之间的双边贸易。埃及政府和中国政府应该尽可能探求加速签订自由贸易协定。为了更清晰的说明埃及农业在中国市场面临的挑战和机遇,本文以埃及向中国出口的企业为样本,设计了两次小组讨论。讨论结果显示,当感到不安的企业进入中国市场时遭遇大量的市场准入阻碍,如关税配额、管制壁垒和动植物检疫措施。此外,中国管制具有易变性,新规程在没有预先通告贸易者或解释原因的条件下就被实施,从而在贸易管理制度与政策上导致埃及企业面临商业不确定性和风险。中国市场的规模导致难以对中国市场整体形成归纳,文化和语言壁垒也加大信息收集的难度,高昂的运输成本多次导致埃及农产品的终端价格高于竞争对手(特别是东南家国家)的价格。研究结果还认为,改进埃及农产品出口中国市场的准入机遇已产生,尤其是中国自给自足程度下降,为其他国家向中国输入提供了更大的机遇,从而要通过采取干预和措施解决现有挑战。作为许多农产品都具有比较优势的国家,埃及能向中国提供更多的农产品出口。本文通过定量分析和定性分析发现,要克服埃及农业出口面临的主要挑战,提高埃及农业国际竞争力,激励农业出口部门发展,需要通过构架促进出口导向的战略框架和路径,从而明确埃及农业在出口增长和竞争力提高过程中的挑战和障碍,并制定综合性的可行解决方案。本文提出一个能提高农业出口部门效能的路标,使其能成为促进经济发展和提高国家竞争力的驱动力。为此,本文构建了一组并按三个层面干预实施的规划(即宏观、微观、体系层面)。宏观层面的措施包括:加强农业出口信贷、保险、担保和激励;构建农业统计和出口经济情报的综合数据库,建立并维护质量程序;增强运输和物流服务功能;鼓励针对农业投入实施进口管制改革;促进法律体制现代化并减少行政管理壁垒;实施优良农业实践检定计划。微观层面的措施包括:完善市场并加大宣传推广农产品出口力度;发展包装和标签服务;提升人力培训和推广服务;制定完善合同农业的计划。在体制层面,本文认为应该实施增强出口协会功能和网络的计划,以及促进政府农业出口相关部门协调的计划。
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全文目录
中文摘要 5-7 ABSTRACT 7-10 Table of Contents 10-15 List of Tables 15-17 List of Figures 17-20 INTRODUCTION 20-29 a Export & Agricultural SECTORS AS MAJOR Contributors to Egypt’s Economy 20-21 b China as Trade Partner of Egypt 21-22 c Problem Statement 22-24 d Justification & Contribution 24-25 e Research objectives 25 f Research questions 25-26 g Methodology 26-27 h Time, geographic and coverage of the research 27 i Research limitations 27 j Research Design 27-29 CHAPTER 1 RECENT TRENDS IN EGYPTIAN ECONOMY WITH FOCUS ON EXTERNAL TRADE SECTOR 29-58 1-1 Introduction 29 1-2 Structural economic reform programs in Brief 29-30 1-3 The Current Economic Cycle 30-38 1-3.1 GROWTH Domestic Product: 30-34 1-3.2 Labor Force and Unemployment 34-35 1-3.3 Inflation 35-36 1-3.4 Monetary policy 36-37 1-3.5 Fiscal policy 37-38 1-4 Egyptian Foreign Trade Sector 38-47 1-4.1 Development in Trade Performance 39-41 1-4.2 Structures of Export Proceeds and Import Payments 41-47 1-4.2.1 Merchandise Export Proceeds by Degree of Processing 41 1-4.2.2 Merchandise Import Payments by Degree of Use 41-42 1-4.2.3 Geographical Distribution of External Trade 42-47 1-5 Overview EGYPT’S REGIONAL Trade Agreements 47-56 1-5.1 Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa 47-48 1-5.2 The Greater Arab Free Trade Area 48-50 1-5.3 The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Agreement 50-52 1-5.4 Qualified Industrial Zones 52-53 1-5.5 The Aghadir Agreement 53-54 1-5.6 Egypt-USA Trade and Investment Framework Agreement 54-55 1-5.7 Egypt –Turkey Free trade Agreement 55 1-5.8 Bilateral Trade Agreements with Arab Countries 55-56 1-6 Conclusion 56-58 CHAPTER 2 OVERVIEW EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 58-75 2-1 Introduction 58 2-2 Contribution of Agriculture to Egypt’s Economy 58-59 2-3 Agricultural Economic Policy Reform Programs 59-65 2-3.1 Policy Reform Programs until mid-19905 59-60 2-3.2 Strategy for agriculture development Up to 2017 60-61 2-3.3 Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy towards 2030 61-65 2-3.3.1 Lessons Learned from Previous Agricultural Development Strategies 62-63 2-3.3.2 Strategic objectives of SADs: 63-64 2-3.3.3 Proposed implementation mechanisms for achieving the strategic objectives 64-65 2-4 The main Characteristics of Egyptian Agricultural Sector 65-68 2-4.1 Limitedness of Arable Lands 65-66 2-4.2 Dependency on Irrigation 66-67 2-4.3 Intensive Cropping Pattern 67 2-4.4 Small Size of Landholdings 67-68 2-4.5 Intensive Use of Fertilizers 68 2-5 Current Situation of Food Production and Self-Sufficiency of Major Crops 68-73 2-5.1 development in Cropping Pattern 68-70 2-5.1.1 Cereals 68-70 2-5.1.2 Food Legumes 70 2-5.1.3 Fiber Crops 70 2-5.1.4 Sugar Crops 70 2-5.1.5 Oil Crops 70 2-5.1.6 Fodder Crops 70 2-5.1.7 Fruits crops 70 2-5.1.8 Vegetables 70 2-5.2 Current Situation of Food Production and Food Self-Sufficiency 70-73 2-5.2.1 Cereal crops 71-72 2-5.2.2 Sugar Crops 72 2-5.2.3 Oil crops 72 2-5.2.4 Horticultural Crops 72-73 2-6 Conclusion 73-75 CHAPTER 3 A SURVEY OF THEORIES ON DETERMINANTS OF TRADE & LITERATURE REVIEW ON EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS 75-94 3-1 Introduction 75 3-2 A Survey of Theories on Determinants of Trade 75-88 3-2.1 Historic Development of Theories of Trade 75-78 3-2.1.1 Providentialists 76 3-2.1.2. MERCANTILISM 76 3-2.1.3 Physiocrats 76-77 3-2.1.4 Classicists and Neo-Classicists 77 3-2.1.5 Absolute Advantage 77 3-2.1.6 Theory of Comparative Advantage 77-78 3-2.1.7 Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) Theory 78 3-2.2 Toward New Explanations of Trade 78-88 3-2.2.1 Demand-Side Explanations 79-80 3-2.2.2 Externalities 80 3-2.2.3 Increasing Returns to Scale 80-81 3-2.2.4 Imperfect Markets 81-82 3-2.2.5 Technology 82-85 3-2.2.6 Geography 85 3-2.2.7 Investment 85-86 3-2.2.8 Infant Industry and Factor Creation 86-87 3-2.2.9 Strategic Trade Theory 87-88 3-3 Literature Review on Egyptian Agricultural Exports 88-92 3-4 Conclusion 92-94 CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS OF THE PERFORMANCE & COMPETITIVENESS OF EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS 94-119 4-1 Introduction 94 4-2 Evaluation of Trends in Egyptian Agricultural Exports 94-100 4-2.1 Overall Balance on Agriculture Trade 94-95 4-2.2 Relative Importance of Egypt’s Agriculture Trade to Total Trade Indicators 95 4-2.3 Structure of Egyptian Agricultural Exports by Major Commodity Groups 95-98 4-2.4 Breakdown of Egypt’s Major Agricultural Exports 98-99 4-2.5 Geographic Distribution of Egyptian Agricultural Exports 99-100 4-3 Some Empirical Indicators of the Performance of Egypt’s Agricultural Exports 100-104 4-3.1 Agricultural Trade Openness Index 100-101 4-3.2 Growth of Egypt’s Agricultural Exports 101 4-3.3 Export/Import Coverage 101-102 4-3.4 Import Penetration Index 102-103 4-3.5 Agricultural Export Propensity Index 103-104 4-4 Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) 104-117 4-4.1 Balassa’s Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage 104-105 4-4.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage in Egypt’s Major Agricultural Products 105-111 4-4.3 Vollrath’s Indexes of Revealed Competitive Advantage 111 4-4.4 Vollrath’s Indexes of Revealed Competitiveness 111-117 4-5 Conclusion 117-119 CHAPTER 5 DETERMINANTS OF EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS:A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH 119-133 5-1 Introduction 119-120 5-2 Theoretical Foundations of the Gravity Model 120-121 5-3 Theoretical Justification 121-122 5-4 Empirical Literature of the Gravity Equation 122-126 5-5 Methodology & Specification of the Model 126-127 5-6 Data & Sample Size 127-128 5-7 Estimation Procedures 128-129 5-8 Econometric Issues 129-130 5-8.1 Multicollinearity 129 5-8.2 Univariate Characteristics of Variables 129-130 5-9 Discussion of Empirical Results 130-132 5-10 Conclusion 132-133 CHAPTER 6 EXPERIENCE OF SOME EGYPTIAN COMPANIES EXPORTING AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES 133-152 6-1 Introduction 133 6-2 Literature Review 133-134 6-3 Qualitative Research Method Used In The Study 134-135 6-4 Selection of Companies and Ethical Considerations 135-136 6-5 Discussion of Findings from the Interviews 136-150 6-5.1 Companies’Experience in Exporting Agricultural Products 136 6-5.2 The Volume of Employment in The Interviewed Companies 136-137 6-5.3 Specialization of Companies in Agricultural Commodities 137-139 6-5.4 Criteria Adopted by the Interviewed Companies for Selecting the Importing Markets 139-140 6-5.5 Sources of Information about the Export Opportunities in the Foreign Markets 140-141 6-5.6 Problems Encountered in the Agricultural Export Activity 141-149 6-5.6.1 Internal Problems 141-145 6-5.6.2 External Problems 145-149 6-5.7 Support from the Egyptian Government to Agricultural Exporters 149 6-5.8 Suggestions of the Interviewed Companies to Improve the Access of Egyptian Ag Exports in Importing Markets 149-150 6-6 Conclusion 150-152 CHAPTER 7 EGYPTIAN-CHINESE BILATERAL TRADE: DYNAMICS & PERSPECTIVES 152-170 7-1 Introduction 152-153 7-2 Retrospective of China’s Economy Development 153-157 7-2.1 China’s Economy Prior to Reforms 154 7-2.2 China’s Economic Growth since Reforms: 1979-2008 154-157 7-3 Cooperation between Egypt and China in Brief 157-158 7-4 Trends in Bilateral Trade between Egypt and China 158-168 7-4.1 Development in Overall Bilateral Trade 158-161 7-4.2 Composition of Trade between Egypt and China 161-162 7-4.3 Trade Intensity Index 162-163 7-4.4 Intra-Industry Trade Index 163-164 7-4.5 Analysis of Trade Complementarity 164-168 7-4.5.1 Revealed Comparative Advantage 164-166 7-4.5.2 Complementarity in Trade 166-168 7-5 Conclusion 168-170 CHAPTER 8 POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN THE CHINESE MARKET 170-198 8-1 Introduction 170 8-2 China’s Agricultural Development in the Past Three Decades 170-175 8-2.1 Agricultural Policy Reform in China 170-172 8-2.2 Agricultural Production Growth 172-173 8-2.3 Structural Changes in Agricultural Production 173-174 8-2.4 Food Security 174-175 8-3 Evaluation of Trends in Egypt-China Agricultural Trade Balance 175-180 8-4 Potential Opportunities for Egyptian Agricultural Exports into Chinese Market 180-186 8-4.1 Analysis of Comparative Advantage 180-185 8-4.2 Egypt’s Agricultural Export Potentials to China Using the Gravity Model 185-186 8-5 Qualitative Analysis of Egyptian Exporting Companies in China 186-195 8-5.1 Selection of The Exporters’Sample 187-188 8-5.2 Assessment of the Focus Groups 188-195 8-5.2.1 First Entry into Chinese Market 188-189 8-5.2.2 Challenges of Operating Export Business in/to China 189-194 8-5.2.3 Agricultural Export Opportunities Provided by the Chinese Market 194 8-5.2.4 Recommendations for Improving theEgyptian Agricultural Exports to China 194-195 8-6 Conclusion 195-198 CHAPTER 9 A ROADMAP TOWARDS THE PROMOTION OF EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS 198-219 9-1 Introduction 198 9-2 Contextualizing The Findings 198-204 9-2.1 Assessing Strengths For Egyptian Agricultural Exports 198-199 9-2.2 Weakness Sources Of Egyptian Agricultural Exports 199-200 9-2.3 Opportunities For Promotion Of Egypt’s Agricultural Exports 200-202 9-2.4 Threats Influencing The Promotion of Egyptian Agricultural Exports 202-204 9-3 A Roadmap towards the Promotion Of Egyptian Agricultural Exports 204-217 9-3.1 The Vision 205 9-3.2 Strategic Objectives 205 9-3.3 Principles of the Strategy Implementation 205-206 9-3.4 Recommended Strategic Interventions 206-217 9-4 Conclusion 217-219 SUMMARY, CONCLUDING REMARKS & FUTURE RESEARCH 219-231 Introduction 219 Overall Summary Concluding Remarks 219-229 Recommendations For Further Study 229-231 REFERENCES 231-246 APPENDIX 246-266 ABBREVIATIONS 266-268 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 268-270 VITA 270
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